Scottish Government Sets 2045 Target for Decarbonising Home Heating

The Scottish Government has outlined new measures in its draft Climate Change Plan for 2026-2040, focusing on reducing emissions from heating systems in homes and buildings by 2045. The plan also addresses targets for heat network deployment and workforce skills development.

According to the draft plan, Scotland intends to meet its statutory target for expanding heat networks by 2035. The plan includes steps to support the transition to low-carbon heating, such as the introduction of a Heat Pump Skills Fund in early 2025 to help businesses adapt to new installation requirements.

The Climate Change Committee’s Balanced Pathway projects that the heat pump market in Scotland could reach a full natural replacement rate of about 170,000 units annually by 2035. Under this pathway, around 40% of Scottish homes are expected to use low-carbon heating by 2035, with approximately 23% of households having a heat pump installed.

Nesta analysis indicates that about 110,000 heat pumps would need to be installed in Scotland between May 2026 and May 2031 to align with climate targets. However, the draft Climate Change Plan suggests a lower figure, with an implied target of around 30,000 installations over the same period.

What the numbers show

• The draft plan targets decarbonising heating by 2045
• Approximately 170,000 heat pumps per year projected by 2035 under the CCC Balanced Pathway
• Nesta estimates 110,000 heat pumps needed between May 2026 and May 2031 to meet targets
• The draft plan implies a target of 30,000 heat pump installations for the next Parliament
• By 2035, 40% of homes may use low-carbon heating, with 23% having a heat pump

The Heat Pump Skills Fund, introduced in early 2025, is designed to provide training for heating and plumbing businesses to support the installation of heat pumps. This initiative forms part of the government’s broader approach to prepare the workforce for changes in heating technology.

The draft plan’s approach to heat pump installation differs from external analyses. While Nesta’s figures suggest a higher rate of installation is needed to stay on course for climate targets, the government’s draft plan sets a lower implied target for the next parliamentary term.

Scotland’s statutory target for heat network deployment is confirmed for 2035 in the draft plan. This commitment is intended to support the transition to low-carbon heating across the country’s homes and buildings.

Progress towards these targets will involve collaboration between government, industry, and training providers. The measures outlined in the draft plan are aimed at supporting Scotland’s long-term climate commitments in the built environment sector.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.