S&P 500 Earnings Season Begins With Strong Growth Projections

The start of the Q2 2026 earnings season has drawn attention due to high growth projections for S&P 500 companies. Multiple sources indicate that both analysts and institutional investors expect earnings to surpass those of the previous year.

Forecasts for S&P 500 earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026 have increased since March, with several estimates now clustered around 23% to 24% year-over-year. The season officially begins in mid-July, and early results have already shown a majority of companies outperforming expectations for both earnings per share and revenue.

FactSet data shows that Wall Street analysts predict S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth of 22.5% for the quarter once all results are reported. Other published estimates, including those from Oppenheimer and XTB, place the expected growth rate at 23.6%. Forbes also reports a similar figure of 23.3% for the year-over-year increase.

Among the first companies to release their quarterly results, 89% surpassed earnings-per-share forecasts and 72% exceeded revenue projections. This pattern aligns with recent history, as in 37 of the last 40 quarters, the final S&P 500 earnings growth rate ended up higher than the estimate at the quarter’s close.

What the numbers show

• Analysts expect 23.6% S&P 500 earnings growth in Q2 2026
• FactSet projects 22.5% earnings-per-share growth for the quarter
• Early Q2 reporters: 89% beat EPS estimates, 72% exceeded revenue forecasts

Sector projections indicate that energy companies are expected to lead earnings growth in the second quarter, followed by the technology sector. In contrast, the healthcare sector is projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings. For revenue growth, technology is anticipated to be the leading sector, with energy following.

Institutional investor sentiment has also reflected optimism for the current earnings season. According to a survey by Corbin Advisors, 80% of institutional investors expect upcoming earnings to be better than those reported in the previous year, which represents the highest level recorded by the survey.

The same survey from Corbin Advisors found that 43% of respondents described companies’ ability to pass on costs as stronger or somewhat stronger compared to last year. This suggests that a notable portion of investors see improved pricing power among S&P 500 companies.

Overall, the combination of analyst forecasts, early company results, and investor surveys points to a positive outlook for S&P 500 earnings in the second quarter of 2026. Sector-specific expectations and historical patterns of exceeding estimates provide additional context for the season’s early performance.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.