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Prediction-Market Trader Loses $100,000 on Super Bowl LX Bets

lite News Desk 2 min read

At a glance

  • Liam Kane lost nearly $100,000 betting on the Patriots
  • Prediction markets saw $1.5 billion in Super Bowl trading
  • Kalshi and Polymarket recorded record activity during the game

During Super Bowl LX, prediction-market activity reached new highs as traders placed large bets on game outcomes and related events. The incident involved substantial financial moves by individual traders and platforms, highlighting the growing scale of prediction markets in sports events.

Liam Kane, a 25-year-old trader, lost close to $100,000 wagering on the New England Patriots during the game. Kane, who operates through his company Kane Analytics, also acted as a market maker, executing over $300,000 in trades throughout the event.

The platform Kalshi recorded a notable shift in odds for a Patriots victory, with probabilities rising from below 2% to about 10% after a late touchdown. These odds fell sharply following a subsequent interception, reflecting real-time market responses to game developments.

Trading volume on prediction-market platforms reached unprecedented levels during Super Bowl LX. Kalshi reported approximately $500 million in trading on the game itself, while Polymarket surpassed $700 million in season-long NFL champion contracts.

What the numbers show

  • Prediction markets handled around $1.5 billion in Super Bowl winner trading
  • Kalshi logged $500 million in Super Bowl game volume
  • Polymarket saw $700 million in NFL season-long trading
  • A Polymarket trader redeemed $3.41 million, earning $1.07 million profit

In addition to sports outcomes, Kalshi and Polymarket enabled trading on non-sports Super Bowl-related events. These included contracts tied to celebrity appearances and halftime show details, expanding the range of market activity beyond the game itself.

One trader on Polymarket redeemed $3.41 million in contracts after correctly predicting the Seahawks would win, resulting in a profit of about $1.07 million. This example illustrates the scale of individual gains and losses possible within these markets.

Unlike traditional sports betting, which is regulated at the state level, prediction markets operate under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulatory distinction sets them apart from other forms of sports wagering in the United States.

The record-breaking volumes and high-profile trades during Super Bowl LX demonstrate the increasing participation and financial stakes involved in prediction markets. These platforms continue to attract both individual traders and institutional interest during major sporting events.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.

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