Jump Trading Takes Stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket for Market-Making

Institutional involvement in prediction markets has increased, with Jump Trading reaching agreements to acquire minority equity positions in both Kalshi and Polymarket in return for providing market-making liquidity.

Jump Trading, a Chicago-based firm recognized for its algorithmic and high-frequency trading strategies, has expanded its participation in prediction markets through these new arrangements. The firm had previously supplied market-making liquidity to Kalshi before the current equity agreements were established.

Under the terms of the agreement with Kalshi, Jump Trading will receive a fixed equity stake. In contrast, the arrangement with Polymarket allows Jump Trading’s equity share to increase in proportion to the amount of trading liquidity it provides in U.S. operations.

These deals reflect a structure where Jump Trading’s involvement is directly linked to its market-making activity, especially for Polymarket, where the equity stake is not fixed but scales with the firm’s trading capacity contribution in the United States.

What the numbers show

• Polymarket’s valuation was estimated between US$12 billion and US$15 billion in late 2025
• Kalshi’s valuation was estimated at US$11 billion as of late 2025
• Jump Trading’s equity in Kalshi is fixed, while its Polymarket stake scales with U.S. liquidity provision

Jump Trading’s history in related sectors includes operating a sports-betting unit on Betfair until 2023. The firm also supported Sporttrade through its venture arm, Jump Capital, indicating ongoing interest in markets that combine financial and predictive elements.

Kalshi and Polymarket have both seen substantial valuations, with estimates placing Kalshi at US$11 billion and Polymarket between US$12 billion and US$15 billion around late 2025. These figures highlight the scale of institutional investment entering the prediction market sector.

The agreements specify that Jump Trading’s stake in Kalshi remains constant, while its equity in Polymarket is determined by the level of trading liquidity it supplies within the United States. This approach aligns Jump Trading’s potential ownership with its operational involvement in the platform.

Through these arrangements, Jump Trading continues to build on its experience in market-making and trading across various platforms, further integrating into the evolving landscape of prediction markets.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.